How Notre Dame Football Fared vs. ESPN FPI in 2023 (2024)

Date: Aug. 26 vs. Navy (Dublin, Ireland)
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 96.1% chance of winning
What Happened: FPI pretty much hit this one on the head as Notre Dame started fast and never really slowed down in a 42-3 destruction of Navy to start the year.

Date: Sept. 2 vs. Tennessee State
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 99.0% chance of winning
What Happened: Notre Dame didn’t have the fastest of starts but once they got going they never slowed down, dominating their first-ever FCS opponent 56-3 at Notre Dame Stadium.

Date: Sept. 9 at NC State
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 71.6% chance of winning
What Happened: Despite another trip to Raleigh featuring brutal weather and lightning delays, Notre Dame overcame a slow offense start to roll to victory in 45-24 fashion.

Date: Sept. 16 vs. Central Michigan
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 97.4% chance of winning
What Happened: Notre Dame’s MAC opponent of 2023 kept things interesting for a half as the Irish led just 17-14 through two quarters, but talent pulled away in the second half en-route to a 41-17 Notre Dame win.

Date: Sept. 23 vs. Ohio State
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 20.7% chance of winning
What Happened: Although I don’t think FPI puts Notre Dame’s history of heartbreaking loses into its formula, they very well could have. Notre Dame was in control of this game needing just one of any of seemingly a dozen plays go their way late and failed on all. Ohio State scored the game-winning touchdown in the closing seconds as Notre Dame had just 10 players on the field. Heartbreak city.

Date: Sept. 30 at Duke
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 82.2% chance of winning
What Happened: FPI probably didn’t account for the mental fatigue Notre Dame would have after the emotional roller coaster that was Ohio State. It took a miracle run by Sam Hartman to convert a fourth down and a game-winning touchdown run by Audric Estime to escape Durham with a 21-14 win.

Date: Oct. 7 at Louisville
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 78.8% chance of winning
What Happened: If Notre Dame was running on fumes after the Ohio State game, they were flat out of gas by the time they hit the road to Louisville. It was a competitive first half until Louisville gutted Notre Dame to a 33-13 advantage, ultimately beating the Irish 33-20.

Date: Oct. 14 vs. USC
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 59.1% chance of winning
What Happened: FPI thought this would be a closer game and following the exhaustion of the three weeks previous it was hard to know which Notre Dame team would show up. A truly dominating defense forced No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams into his worst game of the year as Notre Dame rolled previously unbeaten USC 48-20.

Date: Oct. 28 vs. Pitt
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 85.4% chance of winning
What Happened: Notre Dame came off of the bye and dominated Pitt even more thoroughly than FPI probably even thought, beating the Panthers 58-7.

Date: Nov. 4 at Clemson
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 36.8% chance of winning
What Happened: Notre Dame started slow, falling behind 21-3 early at Clemson. Although the Tigers season didn’t live up to their standards, they still beat Notre Dame.

Date: Nov. 18 vs. Wake Forest
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 88.9% chance of winning
What Happened: Sam Hartman’s old squad was no match for his new one as Notre Dame dominated all afternoon on senior day 2024 in South Bend.

Date: Nov. 25 at Stanford
FPI Prediction: Notre Dame 88.6% chance of winning
What Happened: Notre Dame rode the back of Audric Estime in dismantling Stanford 56-23 in what was the final game as a member of the Pac 12 for the Cardinal.